Publications
All peer reviewed publications are listed below.
Displaying page 10 of 24.
Prospective longitudinal associations between persistent sleep problems in childhood and anxiety and depression disorders in adulthood | 2005
Gregory, A.M., Caspi, A., Eley,
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Journal of Abnormal Child Psychology, 2005, 33(33), 157-163.
Our ref: RO479
The objective of this study was to examine the associations between persistent childhood sleep problems and adulthood anxiety and depression. Parents of 943 children (52% male) participating in the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study provided information on their children's sleep and internalizing problems at ages 5, 7, and 9 years. When the participants were 21 and 26 years, adult anxiety and depression were diagnosed using a standardized diagnostic interview. After controlling for childhood internalizing problems, sex, and socioeconomic status, persistent sleep problems in childhood predicted adulthood anxiety disorders (OR (95% CI) = 1.60 (1.05-2.45), p = .030) but not depressive disorders (OR (95% CI) = .99 (.63-1.56), p = .959). Persistent sleep problems in childhood may be an early risk indicator of anxiety in adulthood.
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Moderation of the effect of adolescent-onset cannabis use on adult psychosis by a functional polymorphism in the COMT gene: Longitudinal evidence of a gene x environment interaction | 2005
Caspi, A., Moffitt, T.E., Cannon,
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Biological Psychiatry, 2005, 57(57), 1117-1127.
Our ref: RO478
Background: Recent evidence documents that cannabis use by young people is a modest statistical risk factor for psychotic symptoms in adulthood, such as hallucinations and delusions, as well as clinically significant schizophrenia. The vast majority of cannabis users do not develop psychosis, however, prompting us to hypothesize that some people are genetically vulnerable to the deleterious effects of cannabis. Methods: In a longitudinal study of a representative birth cohort followed to adulthood, we tested why cannabis use is associated with the emergence of psychosis in a minority of users, but not in others. Results: A functional polymorphism in the catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) gene moderated the influence of adolescent cannabis use on developing adult psychosis. Carriers of the COMT valine allele were most likely to exhibit psychotic symptoms and to develop schizophreniform disorder if they used cannabis. Cannabis use had no such adverse influence on individuals with two copies of the methionine allele. Conclusions: These findings provide evidence of a gene ' environment interaction and suggest that a role of some susceptibility genes is to influence vulnerability to environmental pathogens.
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Intergenerational transmission of warm-sensitive-stimulating parenting: A prospective study of mothers and fathers of 3-year-olds | 2005
Belsky, J., Jaffee, S.R., Sligo,
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Child Development, 2005, 76(76), 384-396.
Our ref: RO477
More than 200 New Zealand men and women studied repeatedly since age 3 were videotaped interacting with their own 3-year-old children to determine (a) whether childrearing and family climate experienced in 3 distinct developmental periods while growing up (i.e., early childhood, middle childhood, early adolescence) predicted parenting and (b) whether romantic relationship quality moderated the effect of childrearing history on observed parenting. Support for the first hypothesis emerged across all 3 developmental periods for mothers (only), with no evidence of moderating effects of romantic relationship quality for mothers or fathers. Results are discussed in terms of supportive versus harsh parenting, motherfather differences, and the characteristics of the sample.
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Commentary: How does socioeconomic disadvantage during childhood damage health in adulthood? Testing psychosocial pathways | 2005
Poulton, R. , Caspi, A.
International Journal of Epidemiology, 2005, 34(34), 344-345.
ISSN 0300-5771
Our ref: RO476
Commentary in Special Theme Section on Socioeconomic Position and Health
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Is cigarette smoking associated with suicidal ideation among young people? | 2005
McGee, R., Williams, S.M., Nada-Raja,
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American Journal of Psychiatry, 2005, 162(162), 619-620.
Our ref: RO475
OBJECTIVE The authors examined the association between suicidal ideation in early adulthood and daily tobacco smoking in a community sample of adolescents. METHOD Participants were enrolled in a longitudinal study of health and development. The factors of disadvantage, impulsiveness, stress, depressed mood, tobacco smoking, other substance use, and parental attachment were included in multivariate modelling of suicidal ideation. RESULTSData on tobacco use were available for 764 participants. Early tobacco smoking was significantly predictive of later suicidal ideation, but there was no longer a significant relationship when high levels of stress and depression and low levels of parental attachment in adolescence were included in the multivariate model. CONCLUSIONS Tobacco smoking in adolescence does not appear to elevate the risk of later suicidal ideation
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First fracture increases risk of new fractures during growth | 2005
Goulding, A., Jones, I.E., Williams,
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Journal of Pediatrics, 2005, 146(146), 286-288.
Our ref: RO474
Prior fracture was associated with increased risk of new fracture in 601 members of a cohort studied between birth and l8 years. Hazard ratios for new fracture in data adjusted for age and sex were l.90 (95%CI l.51-2.39) after first fracture and 3.04 (95% CI 2.23-4.15) after second fracture.
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Sex Differences in the relation between Body Mass Index and asthma and atopy in a Birth Cohort | 2005
Hancox, R. J. , Milne, B. J. , Poulton,
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American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, 2005, 171(171), 440-445.
Our ref: RO473
Rationale: Several studies have identified an association between asthma and obesity in women. It remains unclear if this association is due to genuine asthma or to symptoms caused by overweight, at what age the association develops, and whether it is confined to females. Objective: To explore the relations between body mass index, asthma, and atopy in a birth cohort of approximately 1,000 individuals. Methods: Information on asthma and measurements of lung function, airway responsiveness, and atopy were obtained on multiple occasions between ages 9 and 26. Associations between these outcomes and body mass index were analyzed using generalized mixed linear regression models. Further analyses adjusted for potential covariates including breastfeeding, birth order, parental asthma, and personal and family smoking history. Main results: Body mass index was positively associated with asthma, wheeze, asthma treatment, atopy, immunoglobulin E, and inversely with the FEV1/ FVC ratio in females. There was no significant association with airway responsiveness to methacholine or salbutamol. There was little evidence of an association between body mass index and asthma or atopy in males. Analyses adjusting for potential covariates showed similar findings. Asthma was not associated with a raised body mass index in childhood and childhood asthma did not lead to being overweight as an adult. Conclusions: A raised body mass index is associated with asthma and atopy in women but not men. Population attributable fraction calculations estimate that28%(95% confidence interval 745) of asthma developing in women after age 9 is due to overweight.
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Low back pain in young New Zealanders | 2004
McBride, D.L., Begg, D.J., Herbison,
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New Zealand Medical Journal, 2004, 117(117), U1099.
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15477923
Our ref: NZ88
AIMS: To describe the occupational implications and impact of low back pain (LBP) in a birth cohort now aged 26. METHODS: The LBP data were collected by an interviewer-administered questionnaire. Study members were asked about the prevalence and frequency of LBP and, for the worst episode, details were sought on occupation, time off work or job limitation, the severity of the discomfort, and disability. RESULTS: The cohort comprised 980 individuals, and 969 individuals answered the questionnaire. Of these 969 individuals, 524 (54%) experienced LBP in the previous 12 months, with a modal frequency of three or more times a year. For the 448 individuals with a current occupation, there was no difference in the distribution of LBP between those with professional, clerical, and technical jobs and those with production or trades jobs. Fifty-six individuals had to have time off work (the majority for less than 7 days), and 13 individuals could not look after themselves because of pain. Based on data gathered on 26 year olds, the cost to the economy is estimated as NZ500 million dollars per annum. CONCLUSION: LBP is prevalent and disabling even in young people, and has high costs. The natural history of the disorder is still largely unknown, but work does play a part. Although getting a person back to work may still be the best treatment, it is important to address the workplace factors.
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The self-rated health of women in mid-life: a cross-sectional and longitudinal study of a New Zealand sample | 2004
Keller-Olaman, S., Williams, S.M., Knight,
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New Zealand Journal of Psychology, 2004, 33(33), 66-77.
Our ref: NZ87
Correlates of self-rated health were examined among 704 New Zealand women in mid-life. Logistic regression was used and the variables were grouped within six domains: Health status variables, socio-demographics, social integration, health-influencing behaviours, preventive behaviours, and service utilisation. The final models were dominated by the health status variables. When health status was excluded, poor self-rated health was predicted by not having paid work, low satisfaction with social support, and use of hospital services. A low level of physical activity, being overweight, and two or more visits to a health professional in the past 12 months were associated with good rather than very good self-rated health. The models validated the use of self-rated health as an indicator of health status. The findings also identified the importance of social circumstances when interpreting poor health and lifestyle factors when interpreting good health.
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Identifying and predicting adolescent smokers' developmental trajectories | 2004
Stanton, W.R., Flay, B.R., Colder,
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Nicotine & Tobacco Research, 2004, 6(6), 843-852.
Link to full publication »
Our ref: RO499
Very few studies have defined trajectories of smoking. In the present study, we modeled growth in adolescent smoking and empirically identified prototypical trajectories. We conceptualized escalation of smoking as a growth process and modeled rates of change and heterogeneity of these patterns using latent growth mixture modeling. The analysis identified six trajectories with low ambiguity about group membership (early rapid escalators, late rapid escalators, late moderate escalators, late slow escalators'smokers, stable puffers, and late slow escalators'puffers). A trajectory of quitters was not identified. We also examined predictors of the smoking trajectories. The predictors were assessed across the adolescent years and included variables related to smoking and other substance use, as well as a range of variables related to sociodemographic factors and mental health. Observed change in the pattern of predictors across age has implications for the mechanism of effect of these variables in relation to smoking trajectories, including predictors that differentiated among daily smokers, variables that may determine the trajectory (e.g., friends smoking), and variables that may result from the trajectory (e.g., marijuana use, less attachment to friends).
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Who do young adult victims of assault talk to about their experiences | 2004
Thomson, R., Langley, J.D.
Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 2004, 32(32), 479-488.
Our ref: RO492
Many victims of physical assaults do not report the assault to the police. In this study we examine whom these victims talked to and how satisfied they were with the help they received. A sample of 374 participants of the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study (DMHDS) who had been assaulted in the preceding 12 months, were asked questions about an assault that had the greatest impact on their life and who they had talked to about it. It was found that not only did very few participants report the assault to the police; most victims talked to no one. If they did talk to someone, they were more likely to talk to friends and family and find them more helpful than the police and other services. Talking to others appears to be influenced by the nature of the assault, as participants were most likely to report serious assaults resulting in injuries requiring medical attention.
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Specialization and the propensity to violence: support from self-reports but not official records | 2004
Lynam, D.R., Piquero, A.R., Moffitt,
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Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice, 2004, 20(20), 215-228.
Link to full publication »
Our ref: RO472
The degree to which the propensity to commit violence is distinct from the propensity to commit other nonviolent acts informs theory, research, and practice. This research examines whether there are individuals who tend to specialize in violent versus nonviolent crimes and whether these individuals differ from one another on other measures. Building off prior research, a distributional approach to specialization that examines offenses within individuals' careers was applied to both self-reported and official crime data from a large birth cohort from Dunedin, New Zealand. Whereas analyses of official reports were consistent with previous research in documenting little specialization, analyses using self-reports indicated that individuals differed in their propensities to commit violent crime. Further, individuals with some violent crimes in their offense distribution differ from those with no violent crimes in terms of previous histories of behavior problems and personality. Implications for current theory and future directions are discussed.
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Substance abuse ensnares young adults in trajectories of antisocial behavior | 2004
Hussong, A., Curran, P.J., Moffitt,
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Development and Psychopathology, 2004, 16(16), 1029-1046.
Link to full publication »
Our ref: RO471
We examined two hypotheses about the developmental relation between substance abuse and individual differences in desistance from antisocial behavior during young adulthood. The 'snares' hypothesis posits that substance abuse should result in time-specific elevations in antisocial behavior relative to an individual's own developmental trajectory of antisocial behavior, whereas the 'launch' hypothesis posits that substance abuse early in young adulthood slows an individual's overall pattern of crime desistance relative to the population norm during this developmental period. We conducted latent trajectory analyses to test these hypotheses using interview data about antisocial behaviors and substance abuse assessed at ages 18, 21, and 26 in men from the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study (N = 461). We found significant individual variability in initial levels and rates of change in antisocial behavior over time as well as support for both the snares hypothesis and the launch hypothesis as explanations for the developmental relation between substance abuse and crime desistance in young men.
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Obesity and chronic gastrointestinal tract symptoms in young adults: a birth cohort study | 2004
Talley, N. J., Howell, S., Poulton,
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American Journal of Gastroenterology, 2004, 99(99), 1807-1814.
Our ref: RO470
BACKGROUND: The childhood socioeconomic environment has been linked to adult health status in several studies. However, its role in the pathogenesis of adult irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) remains unknown. We aim to assess the influence of the childhood environment on adult IBS, using data from a New Zealand birth cohort study. METHODS: The Dunedin birth cohort was assembled in 1972-1973 and has been followed prospectively to age 26 (n = 980). IBS was classified according to both Rome and Manning criteria, using self-reported symptom data obtained at age 26 yr. Childhood social class was used as a proxy measure of the quality of the childhood socioeconomic environment and was assigned according to the highest average socioeconomic (SES) level of either parent from interviews across the first 15 yr of life. RESULTS: Childhood social class was significantly associated with IBS according to Manning Criteria (p= 0.05) and Rome II Criteria (p= 0.05). The prevailing trend was identical for both measures of IBS in the sex-adjusted models: this trend can be characterized as a general, and near-linear decrease in the odds of IBS across decreasing levels of social class. Contrasts with the reference group were significant on all comparisons for Manning Criteria IBS (high vs upper middle, p= 0.04; lower middle, p= 0.04; low, p= 0.01), and on comparisons involving the two lower social class groups for Rome II Criteria IBS (high vs lower middle, p= 0.03; low, p= 0.03). The associations were attenuated, but not eliminated by further adjustment for adult social class. CONCLUSIONS: An affluent childhood environment is an independent risk factor for adult IBS.
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The irritable bowel syndrome has origins in the childhood socio-economic environment | 2004
Howell, S., Talley, N. J., Quine,
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American Journal of Gastroenterology, 2004, 99(99), 1572-1578.
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15307879
Our ref: RO469
BACKGROUND: The childhood socioeconomic environment has been linked to adult health status in several studies. However, its role in the pathogenesis of adult irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) remains unknown. We aim to assess the influence of the childhood environment on adult IBS, using data from a New Zealand birth cohort study. METHODS: The Dunedin birth cohort was assembled in 1972-1973 and has been followed prospectively to age 26 (n = 980). IBS was classified according to both Rome and Manning criteria, using self-reported symptom data obtained at age 26 yr. Childhood social class was used as a proxy measure of the quality of the childhood socioeconomic environment and was assigned according to the highest average socioeconomic (SES) level of either parent from interviews across the first 15 yr of life. RESULTS: Childhood social class was significantly associated with IBS according to Manning Criteria (p= 0.05) and Rome II Criteria (p= 0.05). The prevailing trend was identical for both measures of IBS in the sex-adjusted models: this trend can be characterized as a general, and near-linear decrease in the odds of IBS across decreasing levels of social class. Contrasts with the reference group were significant on all comparisons for Manning Criteria IBS (high vs upper middle, p= 0.04; lower middle, p= 0.04; low, p= 0.01), and on comparisons involving the two lower social class groups for Rome II Criteria IBS (high vs lower middle, p= 0.03; low, p= 0.03). The associations were attenuated, but not eliminated by further adjustment for adult social class. CONCLUSIONS: An affluent childhood environment is an independent risk factor for adult IBS.
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Socio-economic inequalities in oral health in childhood and adulthood in a birth cohort | 2004
Thomson, W.M., Poulton, R., Milne,
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Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology, 2004, 32(32), 345-353.
Our ref: RO468
Objectives: To determine whether adult oral health is predicted by (a) childhood socioeconomic advantage or disadvantage (controlling for childhood oral health), or (b) oral health in childhood (controlling for childhood socioeconomic advantage or disadvantage), and whether oral health in adulthood is affected by changes in socioeconomic status (SES). Methods: Participants in a longstanding cohort study underwent systematic dental examination for dental caries and tooth loss at ages 5 and 26 years. The examination at age 26 years included the collection of data on periodontal attachment loss and plaque level. Childhood SES was determined using parental occupation, and adult SES was determined from each study member's occupation at age 26 years. Regression models were used to test the study hypotheses. Results: Complete data were available for 789 individuals (47.4% female). After controlling for childhood oral health, those who were of low SES at age 5 years had substantially greater mean DFS and DS scores by age 26 years, were more likely to have lost a tooth in adulthood because of caries, and had greater prevalence and extent of periodontitis. A largely similar pattern was observed (after controlling for childhood SES) among those with greater caries experience at age 5 years. For almost all oral health indicators examined, a clear gradient was observed of greater disease at age 26 years across socioeconomic trajectory groups, in the following order of ascending disease severity and prevalence: 'high-high', 'low-high' (upwardly mobile), 'high-low' (downwardly mobile) and 'low-low'. Conclusion: Adult oral health is predicted by not only childhood socioeconomic advantage or disadvantage, but also by oral health in childhood. Changes in socioeconomic advantage or disadvantage are associated with differing levels of oral health in adulthood. The life-course approach appears to be a useful paradigm for understanding oral health disparities.
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Identifying predictors of persistent non-alcohol or drug related risky driving behaviours among a cohort of young adults. | 2004
Begg, D.J., Langley, J.D.
Accident Analysis and Prevention, 2004, 36(36), 1067-1071.
Our ref: RO467
This study sought to identify adolescent risk factors that predicted persistent risky driving behaviours among young adults. It was part of a longitudinal study of a birth cohort (474 males and 459 females). The potential predictors were self-reported data obtained at ages 15, 18, 21 years (academic qualifications, personality, mental health, anti-social behaviour and driving behaviour). The risky driving behaviour outcomes were obtained at ages 21 and 26 years and included driving fast for thrills, taking deliberate risks for fun, excessive speed, dangerous overtaking, and close following (tailgating). Persistent risky drivers were defined as those who often, or fairly often engaged in a behaviour at both ages. A minority of males and very few females were classified as persistent risky drivers. Among the males, the factors that predicted at least one, or more of the outcomes were the personality trait of low constraint (i.e. low scores for control, harm avoidance, and traditionalism), aggressive behaviour, and cannabis dependence. These are characteristics to be borne in mind when developing programmes for young drivers that aim to deter the development of persistent risky driving behaviour.
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Association between C-reactive protein, metabolic cardiovascular risk factors, obesity and oral contraceptive use in young adults | 2004
Williams, M.J.A., Williams, S.M., Milne,
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International Journal of Obesity, 2004, 28(28), 998-1003.
Our ref: RO466
Objective: This study sought to determine the relationship between levels of the inflammatory marker, C-reactive protein (CRP), cardiovascular risk factors and oral contraceptive use in young adults. Design: Cross-sectional study of a community cohort. Subjects: 822 men and women aged 26 years. Measurements: CRP, body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, lipid and lipoprotein levels, smoking status, socioeconomic status, health status, and hormonal contraceptive use in women. Results: Multiple regression analysis showed obesity was independently related to CRP with an increase in ratio CRP of 1.03 (95% CI; 1.01, 1.05) for men and 1.07 (1.05, 1.09) for women associated with a 1 kg/m2 increase in BMI. In women combined oral contraceptive use was associated with a ratio change in CRP of 1.52 (1.27, 1.82) compared with non users. Other independent determinants of CRP in men and women were apolipoprotein B level, systolic blood pressure and apolipoprotein A in men. Univariate analysis showed the relationship between CRP and BMI, systolic blood pressure and apolipoprotein B was significantly stronger in women than men. Conclusion: These findings suggest obesity is associated with inflammation independent of other cardiovascular risk factors which may contribute to an increased risk for cardiovascular disease in men and women. Elevated CRP related to combined oral contraceptive use may influence the rate of cardiovascular events in young women.
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Association between child and adolescent television viewing and adult health: a longitudinal birth cohort study | 2004
Hancox, R.J., Milne, B.J., Poulton,
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Lancet, 2004, 364(364), 257-262.
Our ref: RO465
Background: Watching television in childhood and adolescence has been linked to a number of adverse health indicators including obesity, poor fitness, smoking and raised cholesterol. However, there have been no longitudinal studies of childhood viewing and adult health. We explored these associations in a birth cohort followed to age 26. Methods: Approximately 1000 unselected individuals born in Dunedin, New Zealand in 1972-1973 have been assessed at regular intervals up to age 26. The associations between earlier television viewing and Body Mass Index (BMI), cardio-respiratory fitness (maximum aerobic power assessed by a submaximal cycling test), serum cholesterol, smoking status and blood pressure at age 26 were examined using regression analyses. Findings: Average weeknight viewing hours between age 5 and 15 were associated with increased BMI, lower cardio-respiratory fitness, increased cigarette smoking and raised serum cholesterol (P values <0·05). There was no significant association with blood pressure. Except for cholesterol, these associations persisted after adjustment for potential confounding factors including childhood socio-economic status, age 5 BMI, parental BMI, parental smoking, and age 15 physical activity and dietary indicators. Population attributable fractions indicate that 17% of overweight, 15% of raised serum cholesterol, 16% of smoking and 15% of poor fitness at age 26 could be attributed to watching television for more than 2 hours a day during childhood and adolescence. Interpretation: Television viewing in childhood and adolescence is associated with overweight, poor fitness, smoking and raised cholesterol in adulthood. Excessive viewing may have long-lasting adverse effects on health.
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Self-harm and psychiatric disorder: A population-based study | 2004
Skegg, K.M., Nada-Raja, S., Moffitt,
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Suicide and Life-Threatening Behavior, 2004, 34(34), 187-196.
Link to full publication »
Our ref: RO464
Abstract: Little is known about the extent to which minor self-harm in the general population is associated with psychiatric disorder. A population-based sample of 980 young adults was interviewed independently about past-year suicidal and self-harm behavior and thoughts, and psychiatric disorders. Self-harm included self-harmful behaviors such as self-battery, as well as traditional methods of suicide (ICD [International Classification of Diseases] self-harm). All with ICD self-harm and most with other self-harmful behavior met the criteria for DSM-IV disorder. Suicidal/self-harmful thoughts increased the odds for self-harm, even in men without psychiatric disorder (odds ratio 4.9, 95% confidence interval 1.3 - 17.9). Young adults engaging in even minor self-harm warrant screening for psychiatric disorder.
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Self-harmful behaviours in a population-based sample of young adults | 2004
Nada-Raja, S., Skegg, K.M., Langley,
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Suicide and Life-Threatening Behavior, 2004, 34(34), 177-186.
Our ref: RO463
A birth cohort of 472 women and 494 men aged 26 years was inter-viewed about a range of self-harmful behaviors first and then asked about suicidal intent. Lifetime prevalence of self-harm using traditional methods of suicide (ICD [International Classification of Diseases] self-harm) was 13%, with 9% of the sample describing at least one such episode as attempted suicide. Other self-harmful behaviors were common; 14% of women and 33% of men reported self-battery. ICD self-harm over the past year was reported by 3%, mostly without suicidal intent. ICD self-harm and even lesser behaviors were associated with high odds of reporting suicidal ideation. The findings suggest that studies of self-harm should include behaviors not necessarily associated with suicidal intent.
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Influences during adolescence on perceptions and behaviour related to alcohol use and unsafe driving as young adults | 2004
Gulliver, P., Begg, D.J.
Accident Analysis and Prevention, 2004, 36(36), 773-781.
Our ref: RO462
Objective: To investigate whether aggression, parent and peer influences, and previous traffic-related experiences at ages 15 and 18 impacted on (a) differences between the perceived safe and estimated legal alcohol consumption limit, and (b) driving while impaired (DWI) behaviour at age 21. Method: The study population was a birth cohort involved in a longitudinal investigation of health and development. At the ages of 15 and 18, study members completed questionnaires assessing parent and peer attachment, experience travelling with an alcohol impaired adult or youth, aggression, and previous crash experience. At age 21, study members were questioned about how much alcohol they perceived they could drink and still drive safely, and whether they had driven after ‘perhaps consuming too much alcohol’. For each participant their legal alcohol consumption limit was estimated using their height and weight. Path analysis was used to determine whether variables measured at ages 15 and 18 predicted differences between the perceived safe and estimated legal alcohol consumption limit and driving while impaired, both measured at age 21. Results: Insufficient females drove while impaired at age 21, who also had complete data on all other variables, to conduct path analysis for this outcome. For males, aggression at ages 15 and 18, travelling with an impaired youth at age 18, and previous crash experience at age 18 predicted DWI behaviour at age 21. Only aggression at age 15 predicted the difference between perceived safe and estimated legal alcohol consumption limit for the males. For females, aggression at ages 15 and 18, and travelling with an impaired adult at age 15 predicted the difference between perceived safe and estimated legal alcohol consumption limit. Conclusion: The results show that aggressive behaviours and adult and/or youth modelling of drink driving behaviours in mid- to late-adolescence are related to differences between perceived safe and estimated legal alcohol consumption limit for both genders and driving while impaired for males.
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Causal association between cannabis and psychosis: examination of the evidence | 2004
Arseneault, L. , Cannon, M. , Witton,
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British Journal of Psychiatry, 2004, 184(184), 110-117.
Link to full publication »
Our ref: RO461
BACKGROUND: Controversy remains as to whether cannabis acts as a causal risk factor for schizophrenia or other functional psychotic illnesses. AIMS: To examine critically the evidence that cannabis causes psychosis using established criteria of causality. METHOD: We identified five studies that included a well-defined sample drawn from population-based registers or cohorts and used prospective measures of cannabis use and adult psychosis. RESULTS: On an individual level, cannabis use confers an overall twofold increase in the relative risk for later schizophrenia. At the population level, elimination of cannabis use would reduce the incidence of schizophrenia by approximately 8%, assuming a causal relationship. Cannabis use appears to be neither a sufficient nor a necessary cause for psychosis. It is a component cause, part of a complex constellation of factors leading to psychosis. CONCLUSIONS: Cases of psychotic disorder could be prevented by discouraging cannabis use among vulnerable youths. Research is needed to understand the mechanisms by which cannabis causes psychosis.
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Relationship between socioeconomic status and asthma: a longitudinal cohort study | 2004
Hancox, R. J. , Milne, B. J. , Taylor,
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Thorax, 2004, 59(59), 376-80.
Our ref: RO460
BACKGROUND: There is conflicting information about the relationship between asthma and socioeconomic status, with different studies reporting no, positive, or inverse associations. Most of these studies have been cross sectional in design and have relied on subjective markers of asthma such as symptoms of wheeze. Many have been unable to control adequately for potential confounding factors. METHODS: We report a prospective cohort study of approximately 1000 individuals born in Dunedin, New Zealand in 1972-3. This sample has been assessed regularly throughout childhood and into adulthood, with detailed information collected on asthma symptoms, lung function, airway responsiveness, and atopy. The prevalence of these in relation to measures of socioeconomic status were analysed with and without controls for potential confounding influences including parental history of asthma, smoking, breast feeding, and birth order using cross sectional time series models. RESULTS: No consistent association was found between childhood or adult socioeconomic status and asthma prevalence, lung function, or airway responsiveness at any age. Having asthma made no difference to educational attainment or socioeconomic status by age 26. There were trends to increased atopy in children from higher socioeconomic status families consistent with previous reports. CONCLUSIONS: Socioeconomic status in childhood had no significant impact on the prevalence of asthma in this New Zealand born cohort. Generalisation of these results to other societies should be done with caution, but our results suggest that the previously reported associations may be due to confounding.
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Sex differences in developmental reading disability: New findings from four epidemiological studies | 2004
Rutter, M., Caspi, A., Fergusson,
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JAMA , 2004, 291(291), 1007-2012.
Our ref: RO459
Context An influential article published in 1990 claimed that the increased rate of reading disability in boys was a consequence of referral bias. Objectives To summarize the history of research on sex differences in reading disability and to provide new evidence from 4 independent epidemiological studies about the nature, extent, and significance of sex differences in reading disability. Design, Setting, and Participants The Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study comprised 989 individuals (52.1% male) in a cohort born between April 1972 and March 1973 in Dunedin, New Zealand, and followed up from age 3 years; reading performance and IQ were assessed at ages 7, 9, and 11 years using the Burt Word Reading Test and the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children Revised (WISC-R), respectively. The Christchurch Health and Development Study comprised 895 individuals (50% male) in a prospectively studied cohort born in the Christchurch, New Zealand, region during a 4-month period in 1977; reading performance and IQ were assessed at ages 8 to 10 years using the Burt Word Reading Test and the WISC-R. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) Study comprised a UK nationally representative sample of 5752 children (50.1% male) aged 9 to 15 years in 1999; reading was assessed on the British Ability Scales II and IQ on the British Picture Vocabulary Scales II. The Environmental Risk Longitudinal Twin Study (E-Risk) comprised 2163 twin children from England and Wales (49.1% male) identified at birth in 1994 and 1995 and included administration of the Test of Word Reading Efficiency at age 7 years and the Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence Revised as a test of IQ at age 5 years. Main Outcome Measure Reading performance by sex in the lowest 15% of the distribution for all 4 studies, with and without taking IQ into account. Results In all 4 studies, the rates of reading disability were significantly higher in boys. For non IQ-referenced reading disability: Dunedin study, 21.6% in boys vs 7.9% in girls (odds ratio [OR], 3.19; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.15-4.17); Christchurch study, 20.6% in boys vs 9.8% in girls (OR, 2.38; 95% CI, 1.62-3.50); ONS study, 17.6% in boys vs 13.0% in girls (OR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.23-1.65); and E-Risk, 18.0% in boys vs 13.0% in girls (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.04-1.86). The rates for IQ-referenced reading disabilities were similar. Conclusion Reading disabilities are clearly more frequent in boys than in girls.
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Clinically abusive relationships in an unselected birth cohort: men's and women's participation and developmental antecedents | 2004
Ehrensaft, M. K. , Moffitt, T. E. , Caspi,
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Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 2004, 113(113), 258-70.
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Our ref: RO458
In an unselected birth cohort (N=980, age 24-26 years), individuals in abusive relationships causing injury and/or official intervention (9% prevalence) were compared with participants reporting physical abuse without clinical consequences and with control participants who reported no abuse, on current characteristics and prospective developmental risks. In nonclinically abusive relationships, perpetrators were primarily women. In clinically abusive relationships, men and women used physical abuse, although more women needed medical treatment for injury. Women in clinically abusive relationships had childhood family adversity, adolescent conduct problems, and aggressive personality; men had disinhibitory psychopathology since childhood and extensive personality deviance. These findings counter the hibitory assumption that if clinical abuse was ascertained in epidemiological samples, it would be primarily man-to-woman, explained by patriarchy rather than psychopathology.
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The utility of the zero-inflated Poisson and zero-inflated Negative Binomial models: a case study of cross-sectional and longitudinal DMF data examining the effect of socio-economic status | 2004
Lewsey, J.D., Thomson, W.M.
Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology, 2004, 32(32), 183-189.
Our ref: RO457
Objectives. To examine the utility of the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) modelling approaches for modelling four sets of dental caries data from the same cohort study (with particular attention to the influence of childhood socio-economic status, SES): cross-sectional data on the deciduous dentition at age 5; cross-sectional data on the permanent dentition at age 18 and age 26; and longitudinal data on caries increment between ages 18 and 26. Methods. Data on dental caries occurrence at ages 5, 18 and 26 were obtained from the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study (DMHDS). ZIP and ZINB models were fitted to the cross-sectional (n = 745) and longitudinal (n = 809) data sets using Stata (Intercooled Stata 7.0, Stata Corporation, College Station TX 77840, USA, 2001). The dependent variables for the three cross-sectional analyses were the DMFS indices at age 5, 18, and 26, and net DFS increment (NETDFS) was the dependent variable for the longitudinal analysis. Results. The empty ZIP model was a poor fit for all four data-sets, whereas the empty ZINB model showed good fit; consequently both the cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses were conducted using ZINB modelling. Being in the high-SES group during childhood was associated with a greater probability of being caries-free by age 18, over and above that which would be expected from the negative binomial process. Low childhood SES also had the largest coefficient in the modelling of the negative binomial process, but at age 5, where the adjusted mean dmfs score in the low-SES group was 6.8 (compared to 4.7 and 2.9 in the medium- and high-SES groups respectively). The substantial SES differences which existed at age 5 (in the deciduous dentition) had reduced somewhat by age 18, and had widened again by age 26. In the longitudinal analysis, 'baseline' caries experience (age-18 DMFS) was a predictor both of being an extra zero and of caries severity. Conclusion. This investigation of the utility of the zero-inflated approach for modelling both cross-sectional and longitudinal caries data has shown that ZIP/ZINB models can provide new insight into disease patterns. It is anticipated that they will become increasingly used in epidemiological studies that use the DMF index as the outcome measure.
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Does the perceived risk of punishment deter criminally-prone individuals? Rational choice, self-control, and crime | 2004
Wright, B.R., Caspi, A., Moffitt,
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Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 2004, 41(41), 180-213.
Our ref: RO456
Society's efforts to deter crime with punishment may be ineffective because those individuals most prone to commit crime often act impulsively, with little thought for the future, and so they may be unmoved by the threat of later punishment. Deterrence messages they receive, therefore, may fall on deaf ears. This article examines this issue by testing the relationship between criminal propensity, perceived risks and costs of punishment, and criminal behavior. The authors analyzed data from the Dunedin (New Zealand) Study, a longitudinal study of individuals from birth through age26 (N = 1,002). They found that in fact, deterrence perceptions had their greatest impact on criminally prone study members.
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Children who avoid drinking cow's milk are at increased risk for prepubertal bone fractures | 2004
Goulding, A. , Rockell, J.E.P., Black,
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Journal of the American Dietetic Association, 2004, 104(104), 250-253.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0002822303015384
Our ref: RO455.2
The full fracture histories of 50 children (30 girls and 20 boys, age range 3 to 13 years) who had avoided drinking cow's milk for prolonged periods were compared with those in a birth cohort of more than 1,000 children from the same city. Children who avoided milk did not use calcium-rich food substitutes appropriately and had low dietary calcium intakes and low bone mineral density values. Many were overweight (22 of 50). Significantly more of the children who avoided milk reported fractures (16 observed vs 6 expected, '2=31.0, P<.001, df=5). They also experienced more total fractures than the birth cohort population (22 observed vs 8 expected, '2=33.6, P<.001, df=5). All of the fractures occurred before puberty, the majority (18 of 22) being associated with only slight trauma. Forearm fractures were especially common (12 fractures). We conclude that young children avoiding milk are prone to fracture.
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Associations of birth weight and length, childhood size and smoking to bone fractures during growth: evidence from a birth cohort study | 2004
Jones, I.E., Williams, S.M., Goulding,
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American Journal of Epidemiology, 2004, 159(159), 343-350.
doi:10.1093/aje/kwh052
Our ref: RO455
Little information exists on risk factors associated with bone fractures during childhood and adolescence. This 1972/1973–1990/1991 New Zealand study examined the influence of birth size, height and weight throughout growth, smoking, breastfeeding, and sports participation on the risk of fracture in participants of the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study. Information on height, weight, fracture status, and lifestyle was collected at birth and at ages 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, and 18 years from parents and/or participants. Study members sustained 229 (girls) and 393 (boys) fractures between birth and age 18 years. Fracture risk was elevated (per standard deviation unit increase) in relation to birth length (prepubertal fractures only) (risk ratio (RR) = 1.28, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04, 1.58), weight at age 3 years (RR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.27), weight from ages 5 to 18 years (RR = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.28), height at age 3 years (RR = 1.13, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.26), and height from ages 5 to 18 years (RR = 1.13, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.24). Birth weight, maternal smoking, breastfeeding, and sports participation had no significant effect on fracture risk. However, for teenagers, personal daily smoking increased the risk of fracture (RR = 1.43, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.95). The authors concluded that tall and heavy children had an increased risk of fracture, as did adolescents who smoked regularly.
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Childhood origins of violent behaviour in adults with schizophreniform disorder | 2003
Arseneault, L., Cannon, M., Murray,
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British Journal of Psychiatry, 2003, 183(183), 520-525.
Our ref: RO454
Background: People with psychosis have an elevated risk of violence. Aims: To examine whether violent behaviour in adults with psychosis can be accounted for by psychotic symptoms or physical aggression in childhood. Method: We used data from a prospective longitudinal study of a complete birth cohort born in New Zealand. When cohort members were 26 years old, information was obtained on past-year psychiatric diagnosis of schizophreniform disorder and on violent behaviour. Childhood psychotic symptoms were measured at age 11 years using a diagnostic interview, and childhood physical aggression was assessed by teachers when cohort members were aged 7, 9 and 11 years. Results: Participants with schizophreniform disorder were more likely to be violent than participants without, even after controlling for sociodemographic variables and concurrent substance dependence disorders. Childhood psychotic symptoms were a strong risk factor for violence in adults with schizophreniform disorder, as was childhood physical aggression, although to a lesser extent. Conclusions: Violence by individuals with schizophreniform disorder could be prevented by monitoring early signs of psychotic symptoms and by controlling childhood physical aggression.
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Intergenerational relationships in young adulthood and their life-course, mental health and personality correlates | 2003
Belsky, J., Jaffee, S.R., Caspi,
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Journal of Family Psychology, 2003, 17(17), 460-471.
Our ref: RO453
To evaluate effects of life-course events and experiences of young adults, as well as personality and mental-health history on intergenerational relationships in young adulthood, the authors examined dyadic relationship data drawn from a sample of more than 900 New Zealand 26-year-olds and their mothers and fathers. Results indicated that intergenerational relations were more positive when young adults were childless, not unemployed, married, and living away from home, but these factors did not interact with family relationship history in predicting relationship outcomes. Intergenerational relationships were less positive when children scored low on positive emotionality and constraint and high on negative emotionality and mental disorders, though these attributes did not account for the effect of life-course factors. Results are discussed in terms of the openness of the parent-child relationship in adulthood to further development.
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Core group evolution over time: high-risk sexual behaviour in a birth cohort between sexual debut and age 26 | 2003
Humblet, O., Paul, C., Dickson,
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Sexually Transmitted Diseases, 2003, 30(30), 818-824.
Our ref: RO452
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Among the limitations of the concept of a sexually transmitted disease core is uncertainty about the stability of sexual behavior over time. The objective was to shed light on characteristics and stability of the core group by assessing sexual behavior longitudinally in a birth cohort. GOALS: The goals were to describe group size and characteristics of people who report 5 or more heterosexual partners per year (a surrogate for the core group) at ages 18, 21, and 26 years. STUDY DESIGN: We used a prospective cohort study with a computer-presented questionnaire on sexual behavior. RESULTS: Of the original cohort members, 991 (97.3% of those believed to be alive) responded at at least one age. A total of 14.7% of women and 26.0% of men were in the core group at either age 18 or 21 or 26, but only 0.5% and 0.9% of women and men, respectively, were in the core group at all ages. Those in the core group were significantly more likely to report concurrent partnerships and higher sexually transmitted disease (STD) rates. Early age at first sex was consistently associated with being in the core group, whereas those with less education were more likely to be in the core group at age 18 but not at later ages. CONCLUSION: The high degree of variability in sexual behavior over time of individuals adds another degree of complexity to the identification of a core group for STD transmission.
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A population-based study of help-seeking for self-harm in young adults | 2003
Nada-Raja, S., Morrison, D.N., Skegg,
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Australian and New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry, 2003, 37(37), 600-605.
Our ref: RO451
Objective: To examine help-seeking for self-harm in a population-based sample of young adults. Method: Nine hundred and sixty-five participants aged 26 years were interviewed about help-seeking and barriers to help-seeking for a range of self-harmful behaviours. Self-harm included the traditional methods of suicide ( ICD-9 self-harm) and other self-harmful behaviours such as self-battery and self-biting. Results: Just over half of the 25 in the ICD-self-harm group ( based on ICD-9 self-harm criteria) and one-fifth of the 119 in the other self-harmful behaviour group had sought professional help. Counsellors, psychologists, and general practitioners were the commonest sources of help. Most participants rated help received from health services favourably, however, emergency services were rated less favourably than other health services. Among 77 self-harm participants who did not seek help, just over one-third reported attitudinal barriers. Conclusions: To encourage help-seeking by young adults who self-harm, especially young men who are at high risk for self-harm and suicide, it may be necessary to identify ways to reduce attitudinal barriers.
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Commentary: Personality and the socioeconomic-health gradient | 2003
Poulton, R., Caspi, A.
International Journal of Epidemiology, 2003, 32(32), 975-977.
Our ref: RO450
The socioeconomic (SES) gradient in health whereby higher position equates to better health spans both time and place and is found for almost all diseases and many health risk behaviours. The near universality of this phenomenon has led to a search for more fundamental causes. Although differences in material resources and/or psychosocial attributes have been postulated, neither can satisfactorily explain the ubiquity of the socioeconomic-health gradient. In this edition of the journal, Pulkki and colleagues ask if adolescent personality traits can explain the inverse relation between selected cardiovascular health risk behaviours and educational achievement. Their longitudinal study shows that a set of “Type A” - like personality traits predict educational attainment (a component of SES) and accounts for part of the SES gradient in health risk behaviour. The study delivers an important message that we hope will not be lost in the details of the work. The message, as we understand it, is that collaboration between epidemiologists and personality psychologists may prove helpful in better understanding how one’s position in the social structure affects health. In this commentary, we amplify two issues. First, we discuss promising directions in the measurement of personality, and the need to use more comprehensive, and more comparable, personality measurement across epidemiological studies. Second, we discuss issues of causation, and identify alternative ways in which personality may contribute to the social gradient in health.
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Developmental trajectories of childhood disruptive behavior disorders and adolescent delinquency: A cross-national replication | 2003
Broidy, L.M., Nagin, D.S., Tremblay,
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Developmental Psychology, 2003, 39(39), 222-245.
Our ref: RO449
This study used data from 6 sites and 3 countries to examine the developmental course of physical aggression in childhood and to analyze its linkage to violent and nonviolent offending outcomes in adolescence. The results indicate that among boys there is continuity in problem behavior from childhood to adolescence and that such continuity is especially acute when early problem behavior takes the form of physical aggression. Chronic physical aggression during the elementary school years specifically increases the risk for continued physical violence as well as other nonviolent forms of delinquency during adolescence. However, this conclusion is reserved primarily for boys, because the results indicate no clear linkage between childhood physical aggression and adolescent offending among female samples despite notable similarities across male and female samples in the developmental course of physical aggression in childhood.
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A longitudinal population-based cohort study of childhood asthma followed to adulthood | 2003
Sears, M.R., Greene, J.M., Willan,
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New England Journal of Medicine, 2003, 349(349), 1414-1422.
Our ref: RO448
Background The outcome of childhood asthma in adults has been described in high-risk cohorts, but few population-based studies have reported the risk factors for persistence and relapse. Methods We assessed children born from April 1972 through March 1973 in Dunedin, New Zealand, repeatedly from 9 to 26 years of age with questionnaires, pulmonary-function tests, bronchial-challenge testing, and allergy testing. Results By the age of 26 years, 51.4 percent of 613 study members with complete respiratory data had reported wheezing at more than one assessment. Eighty-nine study members (14.5 percent) had wheezing that persisted from childhood to 26 years of age, whereas 168 (27.4 percent) had remission, but 76 (12.4 percent) subsequently relapsed by the age of 26. Sensitization to house dust mites predicted the persistence of wheezing (odds ratio, 2.41; P=0.001) and relapse (odds ratio, 2.18; P=0.01), as did airway hyperresponsiveness (odds ratio for persistence, 3.00; P<0.001; odds ratio for relapse, 3.03; P<0.001). Female sex predicted the persistence of wheezing (odds ratio, 1.71; P=0.03), as did smoking at the age of 21 years (odds ratio, 1.84; P=0.01). The earlier the age at onset, the greater the risk of relapse (odds ratio, 0.89 per year of increase in the age at onset; P<0.001). Pulmonary function was consistently lower in those with persistent wheezing than in those without persistent wheezing. Conclusions In an unselected birth cohort, more than one in four children had wheezing that persisted from childhood to adulthood or that relapsed after remission. The factors predicting persistence or relapse were sensitization to house dust mites, airway hyperresponsiveness, female sex, smoking, and early age at onset. These findings, together with persistently low lung function, suggest that outcomes in adult asthma may be determined primarily in early childhood.
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Breastfeeding and asthma: Appraising the controversy - a rebuttal. Commentary | 2003
Sears, M.R., Taylor, D.R., Poulton,
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Pediatric Pulmonology, 2003, 36(36), 366-368.
Our ref: RO447
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A longitudinal evaluation of adolescent depression and adult obesity | 2003
Richardson, L., Davis, R., Poulton,
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Archives of Pediatrics & Adolescent Medicine, 2003, 157(157), 739-745.
Our ref: RO446
Background: Prior studies have had conflicting results regarding the relationship between adolescent depression and adult obesity. Objective: To test the hypothesis that depression in adolescence would increase the risk for obesity in early adulthood. Methods: We used data from a longitudinal study of a birth cohort of children born between April 1, 1972, and March 31, 1973, in Dunedin, New Zealand (N = 1037). These data included regular diagnostic mental health interviews and height/weight measurements throughout childhood and adolescence. We performed logistic regression analyses to assess the relationship between major depression in early or late adolescence and the risk for obesity at 26 years of age. Results: Major depression occurred in 7% of the cohort during early adolescence (11, 13, and 15 years of age) and 27% during late adolescence (18 and 21 years of age). At 26 years of age, 12% of study members were obese. After adjusting for each individual's baseline body mass index (calculated as the weight in kilograms divided by the square of height in meters), depressed late adolescent girls were at a greater than 2-fold increased risk for obesity in adulthood compared with their non-depressed female peers (relative risk, 2.32; 95% confidence interval, 1.29-3.83). A dose-response relationship between the number of episodes of depression during adolescence and risk for adult obesity was also observed in female subjects. The association was not observed for late adolescent boys or for early adolescent boys or girls. Conclusions: Depression in late adolescence is associated with later obesity, but only among girls. Future studies should address reasons for these age and sex differences and the potential for intervention to reduce the risk for adult obesity in depressed older adolescent girls.
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Prior juvenile diagnoses in adults with mental disorder: Developmental follow-back of a prospective-longitudinal cohort | 2003
Kim-Cohen, J., Caspi, A., Moffitt,
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Archives of General Psychiatry, 2003, 60(60), 709-719.
Our ref: RO445
Background: If most adults with mental disorders are found to have a juvenile psychiatric history, this would shift etiologic research and prevention policy to focus more on childhood mental disorders. Method: Our prospective longitudinal study followed up a representative birth cohort (N = 1037). We made psychiatric diagnoses according to DSM criteria at 11, 13, 15, 18, 21, and 26 years of age. Adult disorders were defined in the following 3 ways: (1) cases diagnosed using a standardized diagnostic interview, (2) the subset using treatment, and (3) the subset receiving intensive mental health services. Follow-back analyses ascertained the proportion of adult cases who had juvenile diagnoses and the types of juvenile diagnoses they had. Results: Among adult cases defined via the Diagnostic Interview Schedule, 73.9% had received a diagnosis before 18 years of age and 50.0% before 15 years of age. Among treatment-using cases, 76.5% received a diagnosis before 18 years of age and 57.5% before 15 years of age. Among cases receiving intensive mental health services, 77.9% received a diagnosis before 18 years of age and 60.3% before 15 years of age. Adult disorders were generally preceded by their juvenile counterparts (eg, adult anxiety was preceded by juvenile anxiety), but also by different disorders. Specifically, adult anxiety and schizophreniform disorders were preceded by a broad array of juvenile disorders. For all adult disorders, 25% to 60% of cases had a history of conduct and/or oppositional defiant disorder. Conclusions: Most adult disorders should be reframed as extensions of juvenile disorders. In particular, juvenile conduct disorder is a priority prevention target for reducing psychiatric disorder in the adult population.
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